Oscar season is heating up, and we over at Lifestyle Asia have decided to try our hand on guessing your future Academy Award nominees for the six major catagories. Will mega hit and cultural phenomenon A Star is Born be the one to beat? We break it down below. Scroll down to see our early Oscar predications…
Best Picture
In a field of 5:
- A Star is Born
- Green Book
- Black Panther
- The Favorite
- Roma
In a field of 9:
- Widows
- First Man
- BlacKkKlansman
- If Beale Street Could Talk
The popularity and box office success of A Star is Born has cemented its front runner status. Since First Man failed to perform big when it was released last October, no other movie has had the right balance of critical darling, commercial hit, and cultural phenomenon as the Bradley Cooper-Lady Gaga romantic musical flick. Expect it do really well on Oscar night, unless sleeper feel-good flick Green Book begins to rise. Marvel’s Black Panther is safe for a nomination (people are dying to honor it), so is the acting trifecta of Stone-Weisz-Coleman in The Favorite. Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma is so well-reviewed that we expect to see it here as well. Lastly, expect Widows to rise if it’s a big hit with movie goers and critics come its release date on December.
Best Actor
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
- Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
- Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
- Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper won’t be winning Best Director for his directorial debut in A Star is Born, but it seems likely that he will win the Best Actor race. No one comes close to his right now. Rami Malek could’ve been a threat for a win, but the films negative reviews and controversy on historical inaccuracies hurt his chance. If Green Book and Vice are a hit come release time, expect Mortenson’s crowd pleasing performance and Bale’s transformation as former VP Dick Chaney to be nominated. Hawke has the passion votes by the acting branch. We think he’s safe. Possible Threat: Willem Dafoe as Vincent Van Gough in At Eternity’s Gate. That’s if the movie isn’t too artsy and unrelatable to the general mass of Academy voters.
Best Actress
- Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
- Glenn Close, The Wife
- Olivia Colman, The Favorite
- Viola Davis, Widows
- Emma Stone, The Favorite
Is it foolish to predict two Best Actress nominations for The Favorite? There is still much confusion with category placement (whose going lead and whose going supporting), but we hear that the core cast is so strong that we might get a surprise come nomination morning. However, we’re praying that Toni Collette in this year’s forgotten masterpiece Hereditary can somehow muster some passion votes from the acting branch of the Academy. There’s so many great contenders for Best Actress this year. Everyone thinks Glenn Close will finally win for The Wife. But will the movie be too obscure to be embraced? We see Gaga walking away with an Oscar just because she’s uber famous and has surprised so many with her performance. Olivia Coleman is safe. Viola’s movie is yet to be seen, but she just won an Oscar and a victory lap is not an unusual thing for past victors. Also, she’s extremely popular within the industry. Possible Threat: Collette or Kidman or McCarthy or Pike. We can’t decide!
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali, Green Book
- Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
- Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
- Sam Rockwell, Vice
- Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The smart thing to do is predict Sam Elliott’s Oscar win A Star is Born, but this category is so weak this year and it’s hard to imagine the Academy giving three acting Oscars to the film. We’re doing a gutsy prediction and going with Mahershala Ali, winning his second Oscar for Green Book (ala Christoph Waltz in 2009 and 2012). They’ll want to reward Green Book somewhere, especially if it’s not winning Best Picture. Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush seems like an undeniable character to honor with a nomination since he just won last year (victory lap)! Timothée Chalamet is getting stellar reviews for Beautiful Boy, and we think the Academy will want to nominate him again after he lost last year for Call Me by Your Name. We can’t decide on the last slot. Could it be esteemed character actor Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me? or is Russell Crowe making a comeback for Boy Erased?
Best Supporting Actress
- Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Claire Foy, First Man
- Amy Adams, Vice
- Rachel Wesiz, The Favorite
- Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Unlike Supporting Actor, this category is stacked with potential winners. Regina King, who is so popular in the industry right now, is a likely victor for If Beale Street Could Talk. Claire Foy had all the talk for First Man when it premiered at the Venice Film Festival, but the heat seems to be dying down. She’s safe for a nomination though. Amy Adam’s, Oscar’s Supporting Actress darling, is considered overdue. If Vice is a hit, she’ll shoot up to the very top. We also think Rachel Weisz is safe. Nicole Kidman, who has so much industry support behind her after Big Little Lies is mostly the fifth nominee. Especially since she has a lead role in Destroyer, which won’t be nominated. Possible Threat: Margot Robbie in Mary Queen of Scots, but only if she’s really, really, really good, or character actress Elizabeth Debicki in Windows.
Best Director
- Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
- Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
- Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favorite
- Spike Jonze, BlackKklansman
- Steve McQueen, Widows
We long for a Damian Chazelle nomination, but for some weird reason, we don’t think it’s happening. There seems to be a general consensus right now that Mexican auteur Cuaron will be winning Oscar #2 for his deeply personal Roma. Cooper will be nominated. Lanthimos looks like he’ll be garnering his first for the inventive The Favorite. We’re not so sure about the final two nominees, but Spike Jonze’s illustrious career may give him a boost, especially if his film is a Best Picture nominee. Lastly, if Widows is a success, expect McQueen to show up. Possible Threat: Damien Chazelle for First Man.
